US GDP Predict
Last 10 years of US Gross Domestic Product (current US$) from the World Bank, then the next 10 years compounded from Kalshi KXGDPYEAR expected growth rates.
Forecast path: GDPt = GDPt−1 × (1 + gt/100), starting from the latest World Bank GDP. gt is Kalshi expected real GDP growth for that year (or the nearest available rate if a year has no contract). Kalshi expected = Σ (prob × midpoint); midpoint = (floor+cap)/2, or cap-only / floor-only for open tails; prob = (yes_bid + yes_ask) / 2, else last_price. Probabilities are not renormalized.
US GDP: World Bank actual + Kalshi compounded forecast
GDP path
| Year | GDP (current US$) | Growth applied | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $18.80T | — | World Bank NY.GDP.MKTP.CD |
| 2017 | $19.61T | — | World Bank NY.GDP.MKTP.CD |
| 2018 | $20.66T | — | World Bank NY.GDP.MKTP.CD |
| 2019 | $21.54T | — | World Bank NY.GDP.MKTP.CD |
| 2020 | $21.38T | — | World Bank NY.GDP.MKTP.CD |
| 2021 | $23.73T | — | World Bank NY.GDP.MKTP.CD |
| 2022 | $26.05T | — | World Bank NY.GDP.MKTP.CD |
| 2023 | $27.81T | — | World Bank NY.GDP.MKTP.CD |
| 2024 | $29.30T | — | World Bank NY.GDP.MKTP.CD |
| 2025 | $30.77T | — | World Bank NY.GDP.MKTP.CD |
| 2026 | $31.35T | 1.890% | Kalshi expected growth, compounded |
| 2027 | $32.03T | 2.150% | Kalshi expected growth, compounded |
| 2028 | $32.76T | 2.299% | Kalshi expected growth, compounded |
| 2029 | $33.40T | 1.955% | Kalshi expected growth, compounded |
| 2030 | $34.08T | 2.028% | Kalshi expected growth, compounded |
| 2031 | $34.91T | 2.444% | Kalshi expected growth, compounded |
| 2032 | $35.81T | 2.578% | Kalshi expected growth, compounded |
| 2033 | $36.60T | 2.210% | Kalshi expected growth, compounded |
| 2034 | $37.33T | 1.997% | Kalshi expected growth, compounded |
| 2035 | $38.18T | 2.266% | Kalshi expected growth, compounded |
Expected growth by year
Summary
| Year | Expected growth % | Σ prob | # buckets | Event ticker | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.890 | 0.923 | 14 | KXGDPYEAR-26 | US real GDP growth in 2026? |
| 2027 | 2.150 | 0.930 | 14 | KXGDPYEAR-27 | US real GDP growth in 2027? |
| 2028 | 2.299 | 0.950 | 14 | KXGDPYEAR-28 | US real GDP growth in 2028? |
| 2029 | 1.955 | 0.830 | 14 | KXGDPYEAR-29 | US real GDP growth in 2029? |
| 2030 | 2.028 | 0.960 | 14 | KXGDPYEAR-30 | US real GDP growth in 2030? |
| 2031 | 2.444 | 0.950 | 14 | KXGDPYEAR-31 | US real GDP growth in 2031? |
| 2032 | 2.578 | 0.910 | 14 | KXGDPYEAR-32 | US real GDP growth in 2032? |
| 2033 | 2.210 | 0.920 | 14 | KXGDPYEAR-33 | US real GDP growth in 2033? |
| 2034 | 1.997 | 0.870 | 14 | KXGDPYEAR-34 | US real GDP growth in 2034? |
| 2035 | 2.266 | 0.995 | 14 | KXGDPYEAR-35 | US real GDP growth in 2035? |
| 2036 | 1.803 | 0.835 | 14 | KXGDPYEAR-36 | US real GDP growth in 2036? |
Bucket detail (debug)
Every market for each year: strikes, computed midpoint, prices, chosen probability, and contribution. Expand a year to inspect the full math.
2026 — E[g] = 1.890% · Σ prob = 0.923 · KXGDPYEAR-26
| Ticker | Band | Floor | Cap | Mid | Mid rule | Bid | Ask | Last | Prob | Prob source | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KXGDPYEAR-26-T0.1 | 0.0% or Below | — | 0.10 | 0.10 | cap only (lower tail) | 0.0000 | 0.0090 | 0.0100 | 0.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0005 |
| KXGDPYEAR-26-B0.3 | 0.1% to 0.5% | 0.10 | 0.50 | 0.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0100 | 0.0170 | 0.0100 | 1.4% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0041 |
| KXGDPYEAR-26-B0.8 | 0.6% to 1.0% | 0.60 | 1.00 | 0.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0100 | 0.0190 | 0.0100 | 1.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0116 |
| KXGDPYEAR-26-B1.3 | 1.1% to 1.5% | 1.10 | 1.50 | 1.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.1230 | 0.1740 | 0.1700 | 14.9% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.1931 |
| KXGDPYEAR-26-B1.8 | 1.6% to 2.0% | 1.60 | 2.00 | 1.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.2750 | 0.2850 | 0.2850 | 28.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.5040 |
| KXGDPYEAR-26-B2.3 | 2.1% to 2.5% | 2.10 | 2.50 | 2.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.2610 | 0.3200 | 0.3200 | 29.1% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.6682 |
| KXGDPYEAR-26-B2.8 | 2.6% to 3.0% | 2.60 | 3.00 | 2.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.1300 | 0.1380 | 0.1380 | 13.4% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.3752 |
| KXGDPYEAR-26-B3.3 | 3.1% to 3.5% | 3.10 | 3.50 | 3.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0110 | 0.0480 | 0.0400 | 3.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0974 |
| KXGDPYEAR-26-B3.8 | 3.6% to 4.0% | 3.60 | 4.00 | 3.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0000 | 0.0040 | 0.0040 | 0.2% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0076 |
| KXGDPYEAR-26-B4.3 | 4.1% to 4.5% | 4.10 | 4.50 | 4.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0000 | 0.0010 | 0.0010 | 0.1% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0022 |
| KXGDPYEAR-26-B4.8 | 4.6% to 5.0% | 4.60 | 5.00 | 4.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0000 | 0.0040 | 0.0040 | 0.2% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0096 |
| KXGDPYEAR-26-B5.3 | 5.1% to 5.5% | 5.10 | 5.50 | 5.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0000 | 0.0040 | 0.0010 | 0.2% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0106 |
| KXGDPYEAR-26-B5.8 | 5.6% to 6.0% | 5.60 | 6.00 | 5.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0000 | 0.0010 | 0.0010 | 0.1% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0029 |
| KXGDPYEAR-26-T6.0 | 6.1% or Above | 6.00 | — | 6.00 | floor only (upper tail) | 0.0000 | 0.0010 | 0.0010 | 0.1% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0030 |
| Totals (used in chart) | 0.923 | 1.8897 | |||||||||
2027 — E[g] = 2.150% · Σ prob = 0.930 · KXGDPYEAR-27
| Ticker | Band | Floor | Cap | Mid | Mid rule | Bid | Ask | Last | Prob | Prob source | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KXGDPYEAR-27-T0.1 | 0.0% or Below | — | 0.10 | 0.10 | cap only (lower tail) | 0.1000 | 0.1600 | 0.0600 | 13.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0130 |
| KXGDPYEAR-27-B0.3 | 0.1% to 0.5% | 0.10 | 0.50 | 0.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0500 | 0.0600 | 0.0400 | 5.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0165 |
| KXGDPYEAR-27-B0.8 | 0.6% to 1.0% | 0.60 | 1.00 | 0.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0300 | 0.0600 | 0.0300 | 4.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0360 |
| KXGDPYEAR-27-B1.3 | 1.1% to 1.5% | 1.10 | 1.50 | 1.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0700 | 0.0800 | 0.0700 | 7.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0975 |
| KXGDPYEAR-27-B1.8 | 1.6% to 2.0% | 1.60 | 2.00 | 1.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0800 | 0.1500 | 0.1400 | 11.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.2070 |
| KXGDPYEAR-27-B2.3 | 2.1% to 2.5% | 2.10 | 2.50 | 2.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.1300 | 0.1700 | 0.1500 | 15.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.3450 |
| KXGDPYEAR-27-B2.8 | 2.6% to 3.0% | 2.60 | 3.00 | 2.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.1100 | 0.1500 | 0.1300 | 13.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.3640 |
| KXGDPYEAR-27-B3.3 | 3.1% to 3.5% | 3.10 | 3.50 | 3.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0300 | 0.0800 | 0.0100 | 5.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.1815 |
| KXGDPYEAR-27-B3.8 | 3.6% to 4.0% | 3.60 | 4.00 | 3.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0200 | 0.0300 | 0.0100 | 2.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0950 |
| KXGDPYEAR-27-B4.3 | 4.1% to 4.5% | 4.10 | 4.50 | 4.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0200 | 0.0300 | 0.0200 | 2.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.1075 |
| KXGDPYEAR-27-B4.8 | 4.6% to 5.0% | 4.60 | 5.00 | 4.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0000 | 0.0700 | 0.0100 | 3.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.1680 |
| KXGDPYEAR-27-B5.3 | 5.1% to 5.5% | 5.10 | 5.50 | 5.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0000 | 0.0500 | 0.0200 | 2.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.1325 |
| KXGDPYEAR-27-B5.8 | 5.6% to 6.0% | 5.60 | 6.00 | 5.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0000 | 0.0400 | 0.0300 | 2.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.1160 |
| KXGDPYEAR-27-T6.0 | 6.1% or Above | 6.00 | — | 6.00 | floor only (upper tail) | 0.0300 | 0.0600 | 0.0400 | 4.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.2700 |
| Totals (used in chart) | 0.930 | 2.1495 | |||||||||
2028 — E[g] = 2.299% · Σ prob = 0.950 · KXGDPYEAR-28
| Ticker | Band | Floor | Cap | Mid | Mid rule | Bid | Ask | Last | Prob | Prob source | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KXGDPYEAR-28-T0.1 | 0.0% or Below | — | 0.10 | 0.10 | cap only (lower tail) | 0.0800 | 0.0900 | 0.0900 | 8.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0085 |
| KXGDPYEAR-28-B0.3 | 0.1% to 0.5% | 0.10 | 0.50 | 0.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0800 | 0.0900 | 0.0900 | 8.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0255 |
| KXGDPYEAR-28-B0.8 | 0.6% to 1.0% | 0.60 | 1.00 | 0.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0800 | 0.0900 | 0.0900 | 8.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0680 |
| KXGDPYEAR-28-B1.3 | 1.1% to 1.5% | 1.10 | 1.50 | 1.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0400 | 0.0900 | 0.0900 | 6.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0845 |
| KXGDPYEAR-28-B1.8 | 1.6% to 2.0% | 1.60 | 2.00 | 1.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0900 | 0.1200 | 0.1100 | 10.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.1890 |
| KXGDPYEAR-28-B2.3 | 2.1% to 2.5% | 2.10 | 2.50 | 2.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0500 | 0.1300 | 0.1300 | 9.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.2070 |
| KXGDPYEAR-28-B2.8 | 2.6% to 3.0% | 2.60 | 3.00 | 2.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.1100 | 0.1200 | 0.1200 | 11.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.3220 |
| KXGDPYEAR-28-B3.3 | 3.1% to 3.5% | 3.10 | 3.50 | 3.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0600 | 0.1300 | 0.0900 | 9.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.3135 |
| KXGDPYEAR-28-B3.8 | 3.6% to 4.0% | 3.60 | 4.00 | 3.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0200 | 0.1000 | 0.0100 | 6.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.2280 |
| KXGDPYEAR-28-B4.3 | 4.1% to 4.5% | 4.10 | 4.50 | 4.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0100 | 0.0900 | 0.0200 | 5.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.2150 |
| KXGDPYEAR-28-B4.8 | 4.6% to 5.0% | 4.60 | 5.00 | 4.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0300 | 0.0500 | 0.0500 | 4.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.1920 |
| KXGDPYEAR-28-B5.3 | 5.1% to 5.5% | 5.10 | 5.50 | 5.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0000 | 0.0100 | 0.0300 | 0.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0265 |
| KXGDPYEAR-28-B5.8 | 5.6% to 6.0% | 5.60 | 6.00 | 5.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0000 | 0.0100 | 0.0200 | 0.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0290 |
| KXGDPYEAR-28-T6.0 | 6.1% or Above | 6.00 | — | 6.00 | floor only (upper tail) | 0.0400 | 0.0900 | 0.0600 | 6.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.3900 |
| Totals (used in chart) | 0.950 | 2.2985 | |||||||||
2029 — E[g] = 1.955% · Σ prob = 0.830 · KXGDPYEAR-29
| Ticker | Band | Floor | Cap | Mid | Mid rule | Bid | Ask | Last | Prob | Prob source | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KXGDPYEAR-29-T0.1 | 0.0% or Below | — | 0.10 | 0.10 | cap only (lower tail) | 0.0700 | 0.0800 | 0.0800 | 7.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0075 |
| KXGDPYEAR-29-B0.3 | 0.1% to 0.5% | 0.10 | 0.50 | 0.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0200 | 0.0800 | 0.0400 | 5.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0150 |
| KXGDPYEAR-29-B0.8 | 0.6% to 1.0% | 0.60 | 1.00 | 0.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0300 | 0.0800 | 0.0400 | 5.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0440 |
| KXGDPYEAR-29-B1.3 | 1.1% to 1.5% | 1.10 | 1.50 | 1.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0400 | 0.0800 | 0.0600 | 6.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0780 |
| KXGDPYEAR-29-B1.8 | 1.6% to 2.0% | 1.60 | 2.00 | 1.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0600 | 0.1400 | 0.0600 | 10.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.1800 |
| KXGDPYEAR-29-B2.3 | 2.1% to 2.5% | 2.10 | 2.50 | 2.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.1500 | 0.2000 | 0.1600 | 17.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.4025 |
| KXGDPYEAR-29-B2.8 | 2.6% to 3.0% | 2.60 | 3.00 | 2.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0500 | 0.1300 | 0.0500 | 9.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.2520 |
| KXGDPYEAR-29-B3.3 | 3.1% to 3.5% | 3.10 | 3.50 | 3.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0500 | 0.1300 | 0.0300 | 9.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.2970 |
| KXGDPYEAR-29-B3.8 | 3.6% to 4.0% | 3.60 | 4.00 | 3.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0000 | 0.0100 | 0.0700 | 0.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0190 |
| KXGDPYEAR-29-B4.3 | 4.1% to 4.5% | 4.10 | 4.50 | 4.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0100 | 0.0800 | 0.0600 | 4.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.1935 |
| KXGDPYEAR-29-B4.8 | 4.6% to 5.0% | 4.60 | 5.00 | 4.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0000 | 0.0500 | 0.0500 | 2.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.1200 |
| KXGDPYEAR-29-B5.3 | 5.1% to 5.5% | 5.10 | 5.50 | 5.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0000 | 0.0300 | 0.0400 | 1.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0795 |
| KXGDPYEAR-29-B5.8 | 5.6% to 6.0% | 5.60 | 6.00 | 5.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0000 | 0.0300 | 0.0100 | 1.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0870 |
| KXGDPYEAR-29-T6.0 | 6.1% or Above | 6.00 | — | 6.00 | floor only (upper tail) | 0.0000 | 0.0600 | 0.0300 | 3.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.1800 |
| Totals (used in chart) | 0.830 | 1.9550 | |||||||||
2030 — E[g] = 2.028% · Σ prob = 0.960 · KXGDPYEAR-30
| Ticker | Band | Floor | Cap | Mid | Mid rule | Bid | Ask | Last | Prob | Prob source | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KXGDPYEAR-30-T0.1 | 0.0% or Below | — | 0.10 | 0.10 | cap only (lower tail) | 0.0900 | 0.1300 | 0.0900 | 11.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0110 |
| KXGDPYEAR-30-B0.3 | 0.1% to 0.5% | 0.10 | 0.50 | 0.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0300 | 0.0900 | 0.0200 | 6.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0180 |
| KXGDPYEAR-30-B0.8 | 0.6% to 1.0% | 0.60 | 1.00 | 0.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0600 | 0.1100 | 0.0600 | 8.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0680 |
| KXGDPYEAR-30-B1.3 | 1.1% to 1.5% | 1.10 | 1.50 | 1.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0500 | 0.1100 | 0.0600 | 8.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.1040 |
| KXGDPYEAR-30-B1.8 | 1.6% to 2.0% | 1.60 | 2.00 | 1.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.1000 | 0.1400 | 0.0900 | 12.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.2160 |
| KXGDPYEAR-30-B2.3 | 2.1% to 2.5% | 2.10 | 2.50 | 2.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0800 | 0.1300 | 0.0800 | 10.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.2415 |
| KXGDPYEAR-30-B2.8 | 2.6% to 3.0% | 2.60 | 3.00 | 2.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.1900 | 0.2000 | 0.3100 | 19.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.5460 |
| KXGDPYEAR-30-B3.3 | 3.1% to 3.5% | 3.10 | 3.50 | 3.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0400 | 0.1000 | 0.0500 | 7.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.2310 |
| KXGDPYEAR-30-B3.8 | 3.6% to 4.0% | 3.60 | 4.00 | 3.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0500 | 0.1000 | 0.0500 | 7.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.2850 |
| KXGDPYEAR-30-B4.3 | 4.1% to 4.5% | 4.10 | 4.50 | 4.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0000 | 0.0500 | 0.0200 | 2.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.1075 |
| KXGDPYEAR-30-B4.8 | 4.6% to 5.0% | 4.60 | 5.00 | 4.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0000 | 0.0100 | 0.0300 | 0.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0240 |
| KXGDPYEAR-30-B5.3 | 5.1% to 5.5% | 5.10 | 5.50 | 5.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0000 | 0.0100 | 0.0100 | 0.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0265 |
| KXGDPYEAR-30-B5.8 | 5.6% to 6.0% | 5.60 | 6.00 | 5.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0000 | 0.0100 | 0.0300 | 0.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0290 |
| KXGDPYEAR-30-T6.0 | 6.1% or Above | 6.00 | — | 6.00 | floor only (upper tail) | 0.0000 | 0.0400 | 0.0300 | 2.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.1200 |
| Totals (used in chart) | 0.960 | 2.0275 | |||||||||
2031 — E[g] = 2.444% · Σ prob = 0.950 · KXGDPYEAR-31
| Ticker | Band | Floor | Cap | Mid | Mid rule | Bid | Ask | Last | Prob | Prob source | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KXGDPYEAR-31-T0.1 | 0.0% or Below | — | 0.10 | 0.10 | cap only (lower tail) | 0.0700 | 0.1300 | 0.1000 | 10.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0100 |
| KXGDPYEAR-31-B0.3 | 0.1% to 0.5% | 0.10 | 0.50 | 0.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0300 | 0.0900 | 0.0600 | 6.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0180 |
| KXGDPYEAR-31-B0.8 | 0.6% to 1.0% | 0.60 | 1.00 | 0.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0400 | 0.1000 | 0.0700 | 7.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0560 |
| KXGDPYEAR-31-B1.3 | 1.1% to 1.5% | 1.10 | 1.50 | 1.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0400 | 0.1000 | 0.1000 | 7.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0910 |
| KXGDPYEAR-31-B1.8 | 1.6% to 2.0% | 1.60 | 2.00 | 1.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0500 | 0.1100 | 0.1200 | 8.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.1440 |
| KXGDPYEAR-31-B2.3 | 2.1% to 2.5% | 2.10 | 2.50 | 2.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.1000 | 0.2000 | 0.1500 | 15.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.3450 |
| KXGDPYEAR-31-B2.8 | 2.6% to 3.0% | 2.60 | 3.00 | 2.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0600 | 0.1200 | 0.0800 | 9.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.2520 |
| KXGDPYEAR-31-B3.3 | 3.1% to 3.5% | 3.10 | 3.50 | 3.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0400 | 0.0700 | 0.0600 | 5.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.1815 |
| KXGDPYEAR-31-B3.8 | 3.6% to 4.0% | 3.60 | 4.00 | 3.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0400 | 0.0900 | 0.0500 | 6.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.2470 |
| KXGDPYEAR-31-B4.3 | 4.1% to 4.5% | 4.10 | 4.50 | 4.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0400 | 0.0800 | 0.0600 | 6.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.2580 |
| KXGDPYEAR-31-B4.8 | 4.6% to 5.0% | 4.60 | 5.00 | 4.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0000 | 0.0400 | 0.0800 | 2.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0960 |
| KXGDPYEAR-31-B5.3 | 5.1% to 5.5% | 5.10 | 5.50 | 5.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0300 | 0.0600 | 0.0400 | 4.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.2385 |
| KXGDPYEAR-31-B5.8 | 5.6% to 6.0% | 5.60 | 6.00 | 5.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0000 | 0.0300 | 0.0500 | 1.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0870 |
| KXGDPYEAR-31-T6.0 | 6.1% or Above | 6.00 | — | 6.00 | floor only (upper tail) | 0.0500 | 0.0900 | 0.0500 | 7.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.4200 |
| Totals (used in chart) | 0.950 | 2.4440 | |||||||||
2032 — E[g] = 2.578% · Σ prob = 0.910 · KXGDPYEAR-32
| Ticker | Band | Floor | Cap | Mid | Mid rule | Bid | Ask | Last | Prob | Prob source | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KXGDPYEAR-32-T0.1 | 0.0% or Below | — | 0.10 | 0.10 | cap only (lower tail) | 0.0800 | 0.0900 | 0.0900 | 8.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0085 |
| KXGDPYEAR-32-B0.3 | 0.1% to 0.5% | 0.10 | 0.50 | 0.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0500 | 0.0700 | 0.0400 | 6.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0180 |
| KXGDPYEAR-32-B0.8 | 0.6% to 1.0% | 0.60 | 1.00 | 0.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0400 | 0.0600 | 0.0600 | 5.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0400 |
| KXGDPYEAR-32-B1.3 | 1.1% to 1.5% | 1.10 | 1.50 | 1.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0500 | 0.1200 | 0.0800 | 8.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.1105 |
| KXGDPYEAR-32-B1.8 | 1.6% to 2.0% | 1.60 | 2.00 | 1.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0100 | 0.0400 | 0.0800 | 2.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0450 |
| KXGDPYEAR-32-B2.3 | 2.1% to 2.5% | 2.10 | 2.50 | 2.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.1100 | 0.2000 | 0.2000 | 15.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.3565 |
| KXGDPYEAR-32-B2.8 | 2.6% to 3.0% | 2.60 | 3.00 | 2.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0500 | 0.0900 | 0.0900 | 7.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.1960 |
| KXGDPYEAR-32-B3.3 | 3.1% to 3.5% | 3.10 | 3.50 | 3.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0100 | 0.1100 | 0.0600 | 6.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.1980 |
| KXGDPYEAR-32-B3.8 | 3.6% to 4.0% | 3.60 | 4.00 | 3.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0100 | 0.1100 | 0.0600 | 6.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.2280 |
| KXGDPYEAR-32-B4.3 | 4.1% to 4.5% | 4.10 | 4.50 | 4.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0000 | 0.0800 | 0.0400 | 4.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.1720 |
| KXGDPYEAR-32-B4.8 | 4.6% to 5.0% | 4.60 | 5.00 | 4.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0500 | 0.0800 | 0.0600 | 6.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.3120 |
| KXGDPYEAR-32-B5.3 | 5.1% to 5.5% | 5.10 | 5.50 | 5.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0200 | 0.0600 | 0.0400 | 4.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.2120 |
| KXGDPYEAR-32-B5.8 | 5.6% to 6.0% | 5.60 | 6.00 | 5.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0200 | 0.0700 | 0.0500 | 4.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.2610 |
| KXGDPYEAR-32-T6.0 | 6.1% or Above | 6.00 | — | 6.00 | floor only (upper tail) | 0.0400 | 0.1000 | 0.1000 | 7.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.4200 |
| Totals (used in chart) | 0.910 | 2.5775 | |||||||||
2033 — E[g] = 2.210% · Σ prob = 0.920 · KXGDPYEAR-33
| Ticker | Band | Floor | Cap | Mid | Mid rule | Bid | Ask | Last | Prob | Prob source | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KXGDPYEAR-33-T0.1 | 0.0% or Below | — | 0.10 | 0.10 | cap only (lower tail) | 0.0900 | 0.1000 | 0.1000 | 9.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0095 |
| KXGDPYEAR-33-B0.3 | 0.1% to 0.5% | 0.10 | 0.50 | 0.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0600 | 0.1200 | 0.0900 | 9.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0270 |
| KXGDPYEAR-33-B0.8 | 0.6% to 1.0% | 0.60 | 1.00 | 0.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0400 | 0.1000 | 0.0400 | 7.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0560 |
| KXGDPYEAR-33-B1.3 | 1.1% to 1.5% | 1.10 | 1.50 | 1.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0100 | 0.1100 | 0.4900 | 6.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0780 |
| KXGDPYEAR-33-B1.8 | 1.6% to 2.0% | 1.60 | 2.00 | 1.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0600 | 0.1400 | 0.1200 | 10.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.1800 |
| KXGDPYEAR-33-B2.3 | 2.1% to 2.5% | 2.10 | 2.50 | 2.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.1000 | 0.2000 | 0.1400 | 15.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.3450 |
| KXGDPYEAR-33-B2.8 | 2.6% to 3.0% | 2.60 | 3.00 | 2.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0500 | 0.0600 | 0.0600 | 5.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.1540 |
| KXGDPYEAR-33-B3.3 | 3.1% to 3.5% | 3.10 | 3.50 | 3.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0100 | 0.1100 | 0.0800 | 6.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.1980 |
| KXGDPYEAR-33-B3.8 | 3.6% to 4.0% | 3.60 | 4.00 | 3.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0400 | 0.0800 | 0.0300 | 6.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.2280 |
| KXGDPYEAR-33-B4.3 | 4.1% to 4.5% | 4.10 | 4.50 | 4.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0000 | 0.0900 | 0.0500 | 4.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.1935 |
| KXGDPYEAR-33-B4.8 | 4.6% to 5.0% | 4.60 | 5.00 | 4.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0200 | 0.0400 | 0.0500 | 3.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.1440 |
| KXGDPYEAR-33-B5.3 | 5.1% to 5.5% | 5.10 | 5.50 | 5.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0200 | 0.0600 | 0.0300 | 4.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.2120 |
| KXGDPYEAR-33-B5.8 | 5.6% to 6.0% | 5.60 | 6.00 | 5.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0100 | 0.0400 | 0.0500 | 2.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.1450 |
| KXGDPYEAR-33-T6.0 | 6.1% or Above | 6.00 | — | 6.00 | floor only (upper tail) | 0.0100 | 0.0700 | 0.0800 | 4.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.2400 |
| Totals (used in chart) | 0.920 | 2.2100 | |||||||||
2034 — E[g] = 1.997% · Σ prob = 0.870 · KXGDPYEAR-34
| Ticker | Band | Floor | Cap | Mid | Mid rule | Bid | Ask | Last | Prob | Prob source | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KXGDPYEAR-34-T0.1 | 0.0% or Below | — | 0.10 | 0.10 | cap only (lower tail) | 0.0600 | 0.1600 | 0.1200 | 11.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0110 |
| KXGDPYEAR-34-B0.3 | 0.1% to 0.5% | 0.10 | 0.50 | 0.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0000 | 0.0500 | 0.0500 | 2.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0075 |
| KXGDPYEAR-34-B0.8 | 0.6% to 1.0% | 0.60 | 1.00 | 0.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0500 | 0.1200 | 0.1200 | 8.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0680 |
| KXGDPYEAR-34-B1.3 | 1.1% to 1.5% | 1.10 | 1.50 | 1.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0300 | 0.1200 | 0.1000 | 7.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0975 |
| KXGDPYEAR-34-B1.8 | 1.6% to 2.0% | 1.60 | 2.00 | 1.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0900 | 0.1600 | 0.1500 | 12.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.2250 |
| KXGDPYEAR-34-B2.3 | 2.1% to 2.5% | 2.10 | 2.50 | 2.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0700 | 0.1600 | 0.1300 | 11.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.2645 |
| KXGDPYEAR-34-B2.8 | 2.6% to 3.0% | 2.60 | 3.00 | 2.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0500 | 0.1400 | 0.1100 | 9.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.2660 |
| KXGDPYEAR-34-B3.3 | 3.1% to 3.5% | 3.10 | 3.50 | 3.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0400 | 0.1200 | 0.0400 | 8.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.2640 |
| KXGDPYEAR-34-B3.8 | 3.6% to 4.0% | 3.60 | 4.00 | 3.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0300 | 0.0400 | 0.0300 | 3.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.1330 |
| KXGDPYEAR-34-B4.3 | 4.1% to 4.5% | 4.10 | 4.50 | 4.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0100 | 0.0200 | 0.0200 | 1.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0645 |
| KXGDPYEAR-34-B4.8 | 4.6% to 5.0% | 4.60 | 5.00 | 4.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0200 | 0.0400 | 0.0200 | 3.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.1440 |
| KXGDPYEAR-34-B5.3 | 5.1% to 5.5% | 5.10 | 5.50 | 5.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0200 | 0.0400 | 0.0200 | 3.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.1590 |
| KXGDPYEAR-34-B5.8 | 5.6% to 6.0% | 5.60 | 6.00 | 5.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0200 | 0.0500 | 0.0300 | 3.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.2030 |
| KXGDPYEAR-34-T6.0 | 6.1% or Above | 6.00 | — | 6.00 | floor only (upper tail) | 0.0000 | 0.0300 | 0.0500 | 1.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0900 |
| Totals (used in chart) | 0.870 | 1.9970 | |||||||||
2035 — E[g] = 2.266% · Σ prob = 0.995 · KXGDPYEAR-35
| Ticker | Band | Floor | Cap | Mid | Mid rule | Bid | Ask | Last | Prob | Prob source | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KXGDPYEAR-35-T0.1 | 0.0% or Below | — | 0.10 | 0.10 | cap only (lower tail) | 0.0800 | 0.1700 | 0.1200 | 12.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0125 |
| KXGDPYEAR-35-B0.3 | 0.1% to 0.5% | 0.10 | 0.50 | 0.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0600 | 0.1200 | 0.0600 | 9.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0270 |
| KXGDPYEAR-35-B0.8 | 0.6% to 1.0% | 0.60 | 1.00 | 0.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0900 | 0.1100 | 0.0800 | 10.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0800 |
| KXGDPYEAR-35-B1.3 | 1.1% to 1.5% | 1.10 | 1.50 | 1.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0400 | 0.0700 | 0.0700 | 5.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0715 |
| KXGDPYEAR-35-B1.8 | 1.6% to 2.0% | 1.60 | 2.00 | 1.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0600 | 0.1600 | 0.1300 | 11.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.1980 |
| KXGDPYEAR-35-B2.3 | 2.1% to 2.5% | 2.10 | 2.50 | 2.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0800 | 0.1800 | 0.1400 | 13.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.2990 |
| KXGDPYEAR-35-B2.8 | 2.6% to 3.0% | 2.60 | 3.00 | 2.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0600 | 0.1400 | 0.1100 | 10.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.2800 |
| KXGDPYEAR-35-B3.3 | 3.1% to 3.5% | 3.10 | 3.50 | 3.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0200 | 0.0600 | 0.0600 | 4.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.1320 |
| KXGDPYEAR-35-B3.8 | 3.6% to 4.0% | 3.60 | 4.00 | 3.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0300 | 0.1000 | 0.0800 | 6.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.2470 |
| KXGDPYEAR-35-B4.3 | 4.1% to 4.5% | 4.10 | 4.50 | 4.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0300 | 0.0800 | 0.0600 | 5.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.2365 |
| KXGDPYEAR-35-B4.8 | 4.6% to 5.0% | 4.60 | 5.00 | 4.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0300 | 0.0400 | 0.0300 | 3.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.1680 |
| KXGDPYEAR-35-B5.3 | 5.1% to 5.5% | 5.10 | 5.50 | 5.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0200 | 0.0300 | 0.0300 | 2.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.1325 |
| KXGDPYEAR-35-B5.8 | 5.6% to 6.0% | 5.60 | 6.00 | 5.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0100 | 0.0700 | 0.0600 | 4.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.2320 |
| KXGDPYEAR-35-T6.0 | 6.1% or Above | 6.00 | — | 6.00 | floor only (upper tail) | 0.0200 | 0.0300 | 0.0700 | 2.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.1500 |
| Totals (used in chart) | 0.995 | 2.2660 | |||||||||
2036 — E[g] = 1.803% · Σ prob = 0.835 · KXGDPYEAR-36
| Ticker | Band | Floor | Cap | Mid | Mid rule | Bid | Ask | Last | Prob | Prob source | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KXGDPYEAR-36-T0.1 | 0.0% or Below | — | 0.10 | 0.10 | cap only (lower tail) | 0.0900 | 0.1100 | 0.1000 | 10.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0100 |
| KXGDPYEAR-36-B0.3 | 0.1% to 0.5% | 0.10 | 0.50 | 0.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0400 | 0.0500 | 0.0500 | 4.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0135 |
| KXGDPYEAR-36-B0.8 | 0.6% to 1.0% | 0.60 | 1.00 | 0.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0500 | 0.0600 | 0.0600 | 5.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0440 |
| KXGDPYEAR-36-B1.3 | 1.1% to 1.5% | 1.10 | 1.50 | 1.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0500 | 0.0700 | 0.0700 | 6.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0780 |
| KXGDPYEAR-36-B1.8 | 1.6% to 2.0% | 1.60 | 2.00 | 1.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.1700 | 0.2800 | 0.1900 | 22.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.4050 |
| KXGDPYEAR-36-B2.3 | 2.1% to 2.5% | 2.10 | 2.50 | 2.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0500 | 0.1500 | 0.0800 | 10.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.2300 |
| KXGDPYEAR-36-B2.8 | 2.6% to 3.0% | 2.60 | 3.00 | 2.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0500 | 0.0900 | 0.0900 | 7.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.1960 |
| KXGDPYEAR-36-B3.3 | 3.1% to 3.5% | 3.10 | 3.50 | 3.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0200 | 0.0500 | 0.0500 | 3.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.1155 |
| KXGDPYEAR-36-B3.8 | 3.6% to 4.0% | 3.60 | 4.00 | 3.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0200 | 0.0400 | 0.0400 | 3.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.1140 |
| KXGDPYEAR-36-B4.3 | 4.1% to 4.5% | 4.10 | 4.50 | 4.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0100 | 0.0200 | 0.0200 | 1.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0645 |
| KXGDPYEAR-36-B4.8 | 4.6% to 5.0% | 4.60 | 5.00 | 4.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0200 | 0.0700 | 0.0100 | 4.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.2160 |
| KXGDPYEAR-36-B5.3 | 5.1% to 5.5% | 5.10 | 5.50 | 5.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0100 | 0.0200 | 0.0100 | 1.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0795 |
| KXGDPYEAR-36-B5.8 | 5.6% to 6.0% | 5.60 | 6.00 | 5.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0100 | 0.0200 | 0.0300 | 1.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0870 |
| KXGDPYEAR-36-T6.0 | 6.1% or Above | 6.00 | — | 6.00 | floor only (upper tail) | 0.0000 | 0.0500 | 0.0500 | 2.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.1500 |
| Totals (used in chart) | 0.835 | 1.8030 | |||||||||
Data from the World Bank (GDP current US$) and Kalshi public Trade API. Not financial advice.